Bahrain Shipping Report Q1 2016

Bahrain Shipping Report Q1 2016

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Published on Oct 26, 2015 - 89 pages

We expect Bahrain to continue develop its role as a regional transhipment hub over the remainder of 2015 and into 2016, with strong container and tonnage throughput growth at Bahrian's premier maritime facility, the Khalifa bin Salman Port (KBSP), forecast to continue. However, growth rates are forecast to slow: from 18.2% to 11.6% for box throughput and from 13.2% to 3.3% for tonnage throughput, with the latter fall attributed to the ongoing slump in oil prices.

Over the medium term, Bahrain's shipping sector will continue to rely on transhipment as a source of growth. We forecast average growth rates of 11.7% for tonnage and 5.1% for container throughput at the port over the next five years, which is a decrease since the uptick after 2011. Slowing growth will be due to limited variety in terms of export goods. However, we do believe that KBSP has a chance to take on the role of a smaller inter-regional rather than international hub. We believe this is the more viable option as KBSP will inevitably lose out to larger, better-located ports.

The slump in oil prices presents a challenge to Bahrain's growth outlook, with the government under pressure to cut spending over the medium term. However, we expect development funds from the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) to support construction activity, while strong consumption in Saudi Arabia will feed into Bahrian's tourism sector. We forecast real economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2015 and 2016, compared to growth of 4.0% a year on average between 2010 and 2014. The economy's medium-term outlook remains contingent upon a lasting solution being found to the current political crisis. We maintain a relatively guarded outlook on the prospects that the government and opposition can come to an agreement in the near term.

Headline Industry Data

Growth in KBSP total tonnage throughput is estimated at 18.2% in 2015, and forecast at 11.6% in 2016, with average annual growth of 11.7% between 2015 and 2019.

The Bahrain Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Bahrain.

BMI's Bahrain Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Bahrain.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bahraini shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Bahrain through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.



Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Khalifa bin Salman Port Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Bahrain 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Bahrain 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Bahrain 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners, 2006-2013
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013
Market Overview
Bahrain Container Shipping Market Overview
Shipping - Global Industry View
Three Container Routes To Watch In 2015
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Excel Maritime Carriers
DryShips
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts - Brent
Table: Bahrain - Real Gdp Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y
Expenditure Breakdown
Table: Bahrain - Main Infrastructure And Industrial Developments
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bahrain 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bahrain 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bahrain 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Bahrain 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bahrain 1990-2025)