Indonesia Shipping Report Q1 2016

Indonesia Shipping Report Q1 2016

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Published on Oct 26, 2015 - 92 pages

Both of In donesia's main ports are set to experience positive growth in 2016 . Consumer demand and economic growth are set to bolster the country's shipping services, although the ongoing slowdown in China's economy could hold Indonesia back from maximising its potential over the next couple of years.

Indonesia's economy is faring extremely well at present, with real GDP growth forecast to reach 5.6% in 2016, up from 4.8% (estimate) in 2015. Added to the country's overall growth is the high rate of per capita growth, which we estimate rose by 10.8% in 2015 and, despite contracting slightly to 9.4% in 2016, will remain steadily about 10% in our medium-term forecast to 2019. This high consumer demand led from favourable demographics, rising levels of urbanisation and greater household leverage all bode well for the country's shipping sector, giving considerable upside risk to our forecasts. Although Indonesia's main export partners remain (in order) Japan, China, Singapore, the US and India, bilateral negotiations that were set to take place with the European Union (EU) in September 2015, along with a bilateral agreement of increased ties reached with Singapore earlier in the year, show the country is actively seeking to diversify its trade partners and export markets, especially away from a stumbling China. This could see pay-offs in the medium term to the country's shipping sector, especially if agreements outside of Asia - such as with the EU - were able to take hold.

Headline Industry Data

Tanjung Priok total tonnage forecast is set to grow 6.0% in 2016.
Container throughput at the port is set to grow by 2.6% in 2016.
Palembang total tonnage throughput is set to grow by 3.5% in 2016.
Container throughput at the port will reach 5.3% in 2016.

We forecast Indonesia's real trade growth will be 1.75% in 2016, the first year of positive growth following two years of contraction.

The Indonesia Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Indonesia.

BMI's Indonesia Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Indonesia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indonesian shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Indonesia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Jakarta (Tanjung Priok) Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Indonesia 2012-2019)
Table: Top Import Sources 2006-2013
Table: Top Export Sources 2006-2013
Market Overview
Indonesia Container Shipping Market Overview
Table: Indonesia Container Port Plans
Company Profile
Samudera Shipping Line
Trada Maritime (TRAM)
Shipping - Global Industry View
Container Shipping: Three Key Themes
Table: Major Beneficiaries
Table: Order Book For New Mega Vessel Class
Table: Vessel Capacity By Trade Route
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Indonesia - Economic Growth Unlikely To Rebound Significantly
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)