Philippines Shipping Report Q1 2016

Philippines Shipping Report Q1 2016

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Published on Oct 27, 2015 - 90 pages

We anticipate 2016 to be a good year for the Philippines ' port sector , with growth to further build up from positive 2015 figures. Economic development and regional trade expansion are increasing trade volumes. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment has temporarily resolved congestion issues and planned projects will provide further accommodation for rising throughput over the medium term. Also contributing to our positive outlook, the Cabotage Act signed in 2015 lowers entry barriers for foreign ship owners, boosting shipping activity in the country.

Over 2016-2019 BMI forecasts an average of 5.5% real growth in total trade supported, with steady growth expected at the Port of Cebu and Manila International Container Terminal (MICT) respectively, the country's two largest ports. We project population growth to average at 1.5% and real GDP growth 5.9% for the same period, supporting our view for steady growth in trade volumes. Relatively low unemployment (6.3% in 2015) and a large active population (63.5% in 2015) are supporting consumer demand and, in turn, imports.

Headline Industry Data

2016 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 6.3% - representing a slight acceleration from 6.0% expected for 2015.
Port of Cebu container throughput growth estimated at 7.1% in 2015, expected to rise to 8.2% in 2016.
MICT tonnage throughput growth is estimated at 1.8% in 2015 and set to accelerate to 2.3% in 2016.
MICT container throughput growth is expected to rise from 6.6% in 2015 to 6.9% in 2016.
2016 total trade growth (in real terms) is forecast at 6.1%, compared to 6.7% estimated for 2015.

The Philippines Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Philippines.

BMI's Philippines Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Philippines.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Philippines through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.



Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Shipping
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Manila International Container Terminal Throughput
Port Of Cebu Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Philippines 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Philippines 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Philippines 2012-2019)
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012 (USDmn)
Market Overview
Philippines Container Shipping Market Overview
Company Profile
International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI)
MCC Transport
Shipping - Global Industry View
Container Shipping: Three Key Themes
Table: Major Beneficiaries
Table: Order Book For New Mega Vessel Class
Table: Vessel Capacity By Trade Route
Global Company Strategy
Container Shipping: Three Key Themes
Table: Major Beneficiaries
Table: Order Book For New Mega Vessel Class
Table: Vessel Capacity By Trade Route
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025)