Hungary Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

Hungary Freight Transport Report Q1 2016

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Published on Nov 10, 2015 - 64 pages

Rail freight will be the strongest growing freight sector in 2015 and it will outperform the other freight sectors over our forecast period. This is due to rail infrastructure investments and the good trade outlook for manufactured goods. Still, road will continue to dominate Hungary's freight mix in 2015, with a share of 74%. Little growth will be seen in the air sector as it continues to lack investment. Overall, the freight sector will benefit from the improved economic outlook in the eurozone economies, in particular in Germany, and the recovery in domestic consumption.

We expect real GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2015, down from 3.6% in 2014, but the overall economic outlook remains strong over the forecast period. The ongoing recovery in private consumption will contribute strongly to GDP growth and better external demand will add positively as well.

BMI believes that trade will grow strongly in 2015 and 2016 as Hungarian manufacturing exports will benefit from the recovery in the Eurozone. Over the long term trade will slow down again as we expect regional growth to be subdued.We expect the road freight sector to grow by moderate 2.4% in 2015, but growth will slow down to an average of 1.5% in 2016-2019. Road haulage will benefit from the recovery in domestic consumption, however, allegations over cartel practices and high fuel costs weigh on growth prospects. In the medium term, the sector faces considerable headwind from the strongly growing rail sector.

Due to better than expected trade figures, we have revised upwards our forecast for the rail freight sector, which we now expect to grow by strong 5% in 2015. Rail freight will continue to outpace growth in road haulage as rail will benefit from strong investments into network expansion and the growing share of vehicle exports in the trade mix. The potential Silk Road project, which will connect Hungary with China, adds major upside potential to our forecast.

The Hungary Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Hungary Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Hungarian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Hungarian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.


IndustryTrends andDevelopments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.



Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (Hungary 2012-2019)